The Times | 15 Gennaio, 1936

M. Laval’s Chances The new Session of the French Chamber, its last before the General Election, began formally yesterday in an atmosphere of uncertainty. The major Parliamentary com- bats of the last few months are over. M. LAVAL’S Government, challenged in turn on their Budget, their foreign policy, and the ques- tion of the political leagues, have escaped defeat -narrowly enough on the second issue-but are still faced by the determined hostility of the Socialists and Communists and by elements among the Socialist-Radicals whose one desire is to defeat the PRIME MINISTER. An occasion for a fresh offensive may present itself on Friday when M. RUCART, a Deputy who has taken a leading part in the movement against the Croix de Feu, Francist, and other Right Wing leagues, presses his threatened attack on the Governtnent for their alleged delay in enforcing the new laws against these organizations. In point of fact the delay was caused chiefly by the cumbrous procedure of the Senate. The three laws, which respectively dissolved the semi- military bodies, forbade the carrying of arms in public, and dealt with incitements to violence in the Press, were promulgated on Sunday. The Croix de Feu, and its less impottant rivals, had alheady shed their military trappings, and are now emphasizing their desire for a national reconciliation. Still this conversion of the Leagues to political good works will not prevent M. RUCART from attacking the general policy of the Laval Ministry under cover of an inter- pellation which has otherwise lost its point. On the other hand, there is no indication that M. LAVAL lacks the skill to parry this thrust as he has parried more serious attacks. His testing- time is more likely to come next week when the Socialist-Radical Party will have elected a chairman in the place of M. HERRIOT. Were the Socialist-Radicals united in opposi- tion to M. LAVAL, his chance of surviving the hazards of the session would be small indeed. Whether in alliance with the groups of the Centre or combined with the Socialists in the Cartel des Gauches they have been for many years the key party in French politics. But they are to all appearance divided over the election of a new chairman. M. DALADIER is the only candi- date yet in the field for the vacant leadership, and in his ideas on foreign policy, which is probably more important. as a Parliamentary than as an election issue, he agrees with M. LAVAL in desiring an understanding with Germany. This, it is true, is a most unpopular policy with the parties of the Left and with many of the Socialist-Radicals. On the other hand, M. HERRIOT is believed to be less eager to become Foreign Minister before the impending General Election. He realizes that SIGNOR MUSSOLINI’s disastrous speech at Pontinia has incensed M. LAVAL, who, if still disinclined to press sanctions further, is nearer Geneva than a month ago. Great importance too is attached as before to the attitude of the small group of Radicals who saved M. LAVAL in the last debate on foreign policy. Then they defended their action on the ground that the Budget had not been passed. That factor is now removed and their defence is being interpreted in some quarters as having set a time limit to their support. Most Radicals, too, must be tempted by the proximity of the election campaign and the necessity of entering it as a united party to abandon their grudging support of the Ministry. The French, be it remembered, do not “hold ” elections; they ” make ” them, and the difference of idiom explains the importance attached by their politicians to the control of the election machine. It is also possible that the result of the prosecu- tion of Left Wing politicians who were involved in an affray with the Croix de Feu at Limoges may unite the Socialist-Radicals against the Government. Such are the chief political factors that are working against M. LAVAL. But their importance is qualified by considerations which are as clear tc the Socialist-Radicals as they are to the PRIME MINISTER. No first-class political issue now divides the Chamber, for the outcome of the Limoges trial is still a matter for conjecture. The Radicals, too, with an election ahead of them and a still suspicious public to placate, must have their doubts as to the advisability of taking the responsibility for what the electorate would interpret as an obvious party manoeuvre. Many Radical, and even Socialist, candidates cannot be sure of being re-elected without the support of more moderate elements, for they know that when it comes to voting they cannot, and indeed dare not, depend on the support of the Communists, their allies in the Chamber to-day, but rivals at the polls in a few weeks’ time. Bargains made behind the scenes may exercise an unexpected effect on French Parliamentary developments in the coming days. And over all the political leaders and their parties hang the ever darker clouds of financial depression. It is true that the flight from the franc has been checked, but the surplus shown in the Budget is a surplus only in name. Vast sums which appear under the head of extraordinary expenditure would normrally be met out of revenue, and are now to be covered by new loans. The banks are having some difficulty in placing the bonds of the Deceinber Treasury Loan with the public: above all, there is no sign as yet of the revival of trade which is the indispensable condition of financial stability. M. LAVAL is believed to be anxious to advance rather than retard the normal dates of the General Election. J4is wish is explained by the natural desire to avoid holding one of its stages on Easter Sunday, but he may also fear the bursting of the financial storm clouds before the polling. New financial stresses might be fatal to his hopes, but their possibility may also deter the Radicals from pressing their threatened attack as vigor- ously as they mright, for they, too, cannot wish to be caught in the rain. So far, therefore, the chances for and against the Laval Ministry appear to. be very evenly balanced, and .it is possible that the issue will remain in doubt until the Socialist-Radicals have met on Sunday and elected a successor to M. HERRIOm. M. LAVAL’S CHANCES